Russia deployed two Su-57 advanced fighter jets to Syria in a move widely seen as a marketing ploy for the troubled plane that's struggled to attract international investment, but they recently hinted at another purpose behind the deployment.
The Times of Israel reports that Russia gave a "covert warning" to the Jewish state by saying the Su-57 will serve as a deterrent "for aircraft from neighboring states, which periodically fly into Syrian airspace uninvited."
The veiled warning comes after Israel and Syria had a heated air battle with Syrian air defenses downing an Israeli F-16. Israel said that it took out half of Syria's air defenses in return.
In an opinion piece in The New York Times, Ronan Bergman reported that Israel planned a larger response to Syria's downing of their jet, if not for a "furious phone call" between Russian President Vladimir Putin, Syria's ally, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Also read: Russia's new Su-57 'stealth' fighter hasn't even been delivered yet — and it's already a disappointment
But whatever the two heads of state said on the phone, it's unlikely the Su-57 had anything to do with it. The Su-57, as it is today, doesn't pose a threat to Western fighters despite being Russia's newest and most advanced fighter jet. It awaits a pair of new engines and has significant problems flying and releasing bombs at supersonic speeds.
"I don't think anyone is too worried about a kinetic threat from Su-57s over Syria in its current state," Justin Bronk, a combat aviation expert at the Royal United Services Institute, told Business Insider.
Bronk pointed to problems with the Su-57 integrating its radar into data the pilot can actually use in the cockpit, and difficulties in getting the jet to drop bombs properly, calling it "far from combat ready."
Though the Su-57's advanced and "innovative" radar set up could pose a threat to US stealth aircraft like the F-22, also operating in Syria, by scoping out its radar signatures and helping inform future battle plans, it's just not ready for a fight with Israel, the US, or even Turkey.
A commercial for a struggling Russian military export?
Vladimir Putin. (Photo from The Russian Presidential Press and Information Office)
Another Russian official gave Russian media an additional reason for the Su-57's presence in Syria that seemed to confirm Western analysis that the deployment is a marketing ploy and test run for the unproven jet.
The official said the jet had a "need to be tested in combat conditions, in conditions of [enemy] resistance."
Yet another Russian official said in Russian media that "as we helped the brotherly Syrian people, we tested over 200 new types of weapons," which have included very advanced systems like submarine-launched cruise missiles designed for high-end warfighting.
But as Bronk pointed out, "the only declared combat which the Russian air contingent in Syria is engaged in is bombing rebel and Daesh forces in support of Assad's ground forces," which he added was "hardly relevant for the air-superiority optimized Su-57."
Essentially, all Russia's air force does in Syria is bomb rebel ground targets. In years of fighting, the bombings have only demonstrated one occasion that the target had anti-air defenses. On that one occasion, the rebels downed a Russian Su-25.
As a result, Bronk said the Su-57s "will no doubt fly above 15,000 feet to avoid" those missiles, meaning the new Russian jet won't really be flying in combat conditions, only bombing defenseless targets.
Not really in combat, not really a threat
If Russia wants to talk about stealth combat jets, Israel has a few of its own. (Major Ofer, Israeli Air Force)
So, why do they need a next-generation, stealth fighter built to dogfight with US F-22s and F-35s that isn't ready for combat yet? Bronk said the bombing campaign in Syria is "absolutely not the mission set [the Su-57s] are designed for."
Retired US Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula, now the Dean of the Mitchell Institute of Aerospace Power Studies, told Business Insider that it's a chance for Russia to test out its new jet where they "don't have to pay for training ranges," and concurred with Bronk's assessment that the plane is not yet able to fully fight.
While Russia may have found a frugal way to boost the profile of an airplane they're desperate to sell by testing it out in Syria's almost eight-year-long civil war, nobody familiar with the state of the plane would take it seriously as an air-to-air threat.